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CME Group FedWatch and market data

CME FedWatch market-implied FOMC rate probabilities (the QuikStrike tool embedded on cmegroup.com: current view and per-meeting daily probability history) and CME Group's public CmeWS market data JSON: delayed futures quotes, daily settlements, volume and open interest, contract specifications, product search, and CME Term SOFR / SOFR average rates.

16 ready-made skills use CME Group FedWatch and market data
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Show CME FedWatch’s probabilities of easing, no change and a hike for the next FOMC meeting, including the data-as-of date and comparisons with a week ago.

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CME Group FedWatch and market data
TRY ASKING
1Request
numberRequired

CME numeric product id, e.g. 305 (30 Day Federal Funds, ZQ), 8462 (Three-Month SOFR, SR3), 8463 (One-Month SOFR, SR1). Discover it with product_search.

5 credits
Codefollows the fields above
const result = await firecrawl.scrape({
  alexandria: {
    provider: "cmegroup-com",
    capability: "fomc-rate-probabilities/contract_specs",
    options: {
      product_id: 305,
    },
  },
});
2Response example

This is a sample shape. Press Run to see live data from CME Group FedWatch and market data.

{
  "codes": {
    "clearing": "41",
    "clearport": "41",
    "globex": "ZQ"
  },
  "contract_unit": "$4,167 x Contract IMM Index",
  "guid": "UPREYPAUSDHX",
  "listed_contracts": [
    {
      "label": "Default",
      "text": "Monthly contracts listed for 60 consecutive months"
    }
  ],
  "minimum_price_fluctuation": [
    {
      "label": "Default",
      "text": "1/2 of one basis point (0.005) = $20.835 Beginning at 5:00 p.m. CT on the Sunday preceding the first business day of the spot month: 1/4 of one basis point (0.0025) = $10.4175"
    }
  ],
  "observed_at_ms": 1790908510938,
  "price_quotation": "Contract IMM Index = 100 minus R R = arithmetic average of daily effective federal funds rates during contract month. E.g., a price quote of 92.75 signifies an average daily rate of 7.25 percent per annum.",
  "product_group": "Interest Rate",
  "product_id": 305,
  "product_name": "30-Day Federal Fund Futures",
  "product_sub_group": "Stirs",
  "settlement_method": "Financially Settled",
  "settlement_procedures": "Expiring contracts are cash settled against the average daily Fed Funds overnight rate for the delivery month, rounded to the nearest one-tenth of one basis point. Final settlement occurs on the first business day following the last trading day. The daily Fed Funds overnight rate is calculated and reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Settlement Procedures",
  "source_url": "https://www.cmegroup.com/CmeWS/mvc/ContractSpecs/List/productId/305",
  "termination_of_trading": [
    {
      "label": "Default",
      "text": "Trading terminates on the last business day of the contract month."
    }
  ],
  "trading_hours": [
    {
      "label": "CME Globex",
      "text": "Sunday - Friday 6:00 p.m. - 5:00 p.m.ET (5:00 p.m. - 4:00 p.m. CT). Monday - Thursday 5:00 p.m. - 6:00 p.m. ET (4:00 p.m. - 5:00 p.m. CT) daily maintenance period."
    },
    {
      "label": "CME ClearPort",
      "text": "Sunday 5:00 p.m. - Friday 5:45 p.m. CT with no reporting Monday - Thursday from 5:45 p.m. - 6:00 p.m. CT"
    }
  ],
  "underlying": null
}

Use cases

16

Built-in skills that call CME Group FedWatch and market data.

Uses CME Group FedWatch and market data, CFTC Commitments of Traders, ACIS (NOAA Regional Climate Centers), US Energy Information AdministrationCountry elevator bid sheet checkUse when a grain merchandiser at a country elevator is setting the daily cash bid and basis for corn or soybeans. Reads nearby and new-crop futures settlements and volume, fund positioning, rainfall in the draw area that affects harvest pace, and diesel prices that drive trucking cost, then explains where basis should sit.7 capabilitiesUse
Uses CME Group FedWatch and market data, FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), ACIS (NOAA Regional Climate Centers), Element 84 Earth Search (Sentinel-2 L2A)Farm operating loan stress testUse when an agricultural loan officer is renewing a farm operating line and wants to stress the borrower's crop revenue. Reads futures prices for the borrower's crops, the interest rate path, season rainfall against normal at the farm, and satellite vegetation indices on key fields, then frames downside scenarios.5 capabilitiesUse
Uses CME Group FedWatch and market data, CFTC Commitments of Traders, NASA POWERFeedlot placement margin checkUse when a feedlot cattle buyer is deciding whether to place feeder cattle now. Reads feeder and live cattle futures for the placement and finish months, corn futures for feed cost, fund positioning in cattle, and pasture conditions in cow-calf regions that drive feeder supply, then lays out the margin inputs.6 capabilitiesUse
Uses CME Group FedWatch and market data, CFTC Commitments of Traders, NASA POWER, fredGrain sale timing checkUse when a grain farmer or elevator merchandiser is deciding whether to sell, store or hedge corn, soybeans or wheat this month. Reads the futures curve, how speculative funds are positioned, how the growing season looks across the main producing region, and the dollar, then lays out the case for selling now versus storing.7 capabilitiesUse
Uses CME Group FedWatch and market data, Polymarket, Federal Reserve Board, fredFOMC odds cross-checkUse in the days before a Federal Reserve meeting, when someone asks what the market expects. Compares futures-implied FedWatch probabilities with prediction market prices and with what Fed officials have said since the last meeting, against the latest inflation and jobs data, producing a preview that names where the three disagree.7 capabilitiesUse
Uses US Energy Information Administration, CME Group FedWatch and market data, CFTC Commitments of TradersDiesel procurement hedge checkUse when a fuel procurement manager for a trucking or delivery fleet is deciding whether to lock in diesel prices. Reads retail diesel by region, distillate inventories, the ULSD futures curve and fund positioning, then sets out whether the market looks tight and what locking in now would mean against the curve.7 capabilitiesUse
Uses US Energy Information Administration, CME Group FedWatch and market data, CFTC Commitments of TradersWeekly crude balance and positioningUse when a crude oil trader or oil analyst is reading the weekly EIA petroleum status numbers and wants them in one view with prices and positioning. Reads commercial and Cushing crude stocks against last year, WTI and Brent spot, the futures curve shape and managed money positions, then says whether the data and positioning agree.7 capabilitiesUse
Uses CFTC Commitments of Traders, CME Group FedWatch and market data, Forex Factory economic calendarCrowded commodity positioning checkUse before a commodity trader or hedge fund analyst adds to a futures position and wants to know whether speculators are already crowded on the same side. Reads managed money positioning from the CFTC disaggregated report, the price curve and volume at CME, and the next scheduled data releases, producing a crowding score and squeeze risk note.6 capabilitiesUse
Uses fred, US Energy Information Administration, CME Group FedWatch and market dataFertilizer-to-grain affordability checkUse before booking fall or spring fertilizer when a farmer, co-op agronomist or ag lender asks whether nitrogen is cheap or dear relative to the crop it grows. Reads the fertilizer producer price index, the natural gas price that drives nitrogen cost, and the grain futures strip, and reports the price ratio and its trend with a buy-now or wait lean.6 capabilitiesUse

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