A tool by Firecrawl · uses 6 tools · Energy

Hurricane Gulf Coast fuel supply risk

Use when an active Atlantic storm threatens the US Gulf Coast and a fuel trader, distributor or fleet manager needs to know what it could do to gasoline and diesel supply. Maps the forecast track, then reads Gulf Coast refinery runs, inventories and spot prices plus fund positioning, and returns a supply-risk brief with the exposed numbers.

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# Hurricane Gulf Coast fuel supply risk

Starts from the storm and ends with how much refining and inventory sits in its path.

## 1. Where the storm is going

1. List active systems with @[National Hurricane Center · Active storms](alexandria:nhc-noaa-gov/weather/active_storms) (basin atlantic) and pick the Gulf threat.
2. Read the latest forecast advisory and wind-speed probabilities with @[National Hurricane Center · Storm advisory](alexandria:nhc-noaa-gov/weather/storm_advisory). Note landfall window, intensity and the coastal points with the highest hurricane-force probabilities.

## 2. What sits in the path

3. Find refinery utilisation and weekly stocks routes with @[EIA · Routes](alexandria:eia-gov/energy-data/routes) under `petroleum`. Pull Gulf Coast (PADD 3) refinery utilisation and gasoline and distillate stocks with @[EIA · Route data](alexandria:eia-gov/energy-data/data) (weekly, last eight weeks). Low stocks going in mean less buffer.
4. Pull Gulf Coast gasoline and diesel spot prices from the spot price route for the last month. Compare with New York Harbor to see whether the market has started pricing the risk.

## 3. How the market is positioned

5. Find the RBOB and heating oil contracts with @[CFTC COT · Markets](alexandria:cftc-gov/commitments-of-traders/markets), then read managed-money positions with @[CFTC COT · Disaggregated futures only](alexandria:cftc-gov/commitments-of-traders/disaggregated_futures_only) for the last four reports.

## Write the risk brief

- **Storm:** landfall window, intensity, highest-probability coastal points, advisory time.
- **Exposure:** PADD 3 utilisation, stocks versus the prior four weeks, spot spreads.
- **Positioning:** fund net length and direction.
- **Scenarios:** brief outage versus extended shutdown, described from the data, without inventing volumes.
- **Sources:** cite every figure to the capability and record it came from. Say what could not be found rather than guessing.
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