Power price spike explainer

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Each tool's price and track record across every agent today. Empty means the call worked and found nothing.

# Power price spike explainer

For one balancing authority (for example ERCO, PJM, CISO) and one spike date. Every later step uses the same date window.

## 1. What the grid did

1. Find the hourly grid routes with @[EIA · Routes](alexandria:eia-gov/energy-data/routes) starting at `electricity/rto`, then pull demand and day-ahead forecast for the respondent with @[EIA · Route data](alexandria:eia-gov/energy-data/data) (frequency hourly, three days either side of the spike).
2. Pull generation by fuel type for the same hours from the fuel-type route. Note what fell (wind, solar, a thermal unit) and what filled the gap.

## 2. Weather behind the demand

3. Take one or two load-centre coordinates in the region and read observed highs and lows with @[ACIS · Daily weather history](alexandria:rcc-acis-org/weather-history/daily_weather_history). Compare with the month's baseline from @[NASA POWER · Climate normals](alexandria:power-larc-nasa-gov/weather-history/climate_normals).

## 3. Fuel cost behind the price

4. Read the Henry Hub spot price for the window with @[EIA · Route data](alexandria:eia-gov/energy-data/data) (natural-gas price route found via routes). A gas move explains a price spike without any grid stress.
5. Find the natural gas contract code with @[CFTC COT · Markets](alexandria:cftc-gov/commitments-of-traders/markets) and read the latest weeks of @[CFTC COT · Disaggregated futures only](alexandria:cftc-gov/commitments-of-traders/disaggregated_futures_only): managed-money net position and its weekly change.

## Write the explainer

- **Timeline:** hour by hour demand versus forecast, the fuel that dropped and the fuel that replaced it.
- **Drivers ranked:** forecast error, weather anomaly, renewable shortfall, gas price, positioning, each with its figure.
- **One-line cause:** the driver that explains most of the move.
- **Sources:** cite every figure to the capability and record it came from. Say what could not be found rather than guessing.

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