Cocoa or coffee origin sourcing risk

Tools it calls

Each tool's price and track record across every agent today. Empty means the call worked and found nothing.

# Cocoa or coffee origin sourcing risk

For one commodity and one origin (for example cocoa from Cote d'Ivoire, arabica from Brazil). Region coordinates and the port code set in step 1 are reused throughout.

## 1. Market positioning

1. Find the contract with @[CFTC COT · Markets](alexandria:cftc-gov/commitments-of-traders/markets) (query COCOA or COFFEE, report disaggregated_futures_only) and read the last twelve weeks of @[CFTC COT · Disaggregated futures only](alexandria:cftc-gov/commitments-of-traders/disaggregated_futures_only). Note managed-money net and producer/merchant hedging; producers hedging less often signals they expect higher prices.

## 2. Growing conditions

2. Pick two or three points in the main growing belt and read the last 24 months with @[NASA POWER · Monthly history](alexandria:power-larc-nasa-gov/weather-history/monthly_history). Compare the current and coming critical months with @[NASA POWER · Climate normals](alexandria:power-larc-nasa-gov/weather-history/climate_normals).
3. Read root-zone wetness for the last 90 days with @[NASA POWER · Soil moisture](alexandria:power-larc-nasa-gov/weather-history/soil_moisture).

## 3. Currency and shipping

4. Read the origin currency against USD and EUR with @[XE · Rate history](alexandria:xe-com/exchange-rates/rate_history) (range 1Y). A weakening origin currency can loosen farmgate supply.
5. Find the origin and destination ports with @[MSC · List ports](alexandria:msc-com/shipment-tracking/list_ports) and list sailings for the next month with @[MSC · Search sailing schedule](alexandria:msc-com/shipment-tracking/search_sailing_schedule). Check @[MSC · List advisories](alexandria:msc-com/shipment-tracking/list_advisories) for surcharges or congestion.

## Write the sourcing brief

- **Positioning:** fund and producer stance with trend.
- **Crop weather:** rainfall and soil moisture versus normal by month.
- **Currency:** one-year range and direction.
- **Logistics:** next sailings, transit times, advisories.
- **Timing:** buy forward, buy spot or split, with reasons. Not trading advice.
- **Sources:** cite every figure to the capability and record it came from. Say what could not be found rather than guessing.

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