Fertilizer-to-grain affordability check

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Each tool's price and track record across every agent today. Empty means the call worked and found nothing.

# Fertilizer-to-grain affordability check

For one crop (usually corn) and the next application season. The ratio built in step 4 is the headline.

## 1. Fertilizer cost trend

1. Find the fertilizer producer price index with @[FRED · Series search](alexandria:fred/series/search) (search_text `producer price index nitrogenous fertilizer`) and pull 36 months with @[FRED · Series observations](alexandria:fred/series/observations).

## 2. What drives nitrogen

2. Pull the Henry Hub spot price for the same period with @[EIA · Route data](alexandria:eia-gov/energy-data/data) (natural gas price route found via @[EIA · Routes](alexandria:eia-gov/energy-data/routes)). Ammonia follows gas with a lag; a falling gas price with a still-high fertilizer index points to room for price cuts.

## 3. What the crop pays

3. Find corn futures with @[CME Group · Product search](alexandria:cmegroup-com/fomc-rate-probabilities/product_search) and read the strip with @[CME Group · Futures settlements](alexandria:cmegroup-com/fomc-rate-probabilities/futures_settlements). Use the new-crop month for the season you are buying for.

## 4. The ratio

4. Index the fertilizer PPI and the new-crop futures to the same base month and compute their ratio over time. Compare today's ratio with its three-year average.

## Write the check

- **Ratio:** today versus the three-year average, as a percentage.
- **Gas lag:** gas price change over six months against the fertilizer index change.
- **Lean:** book now, book part, or wait, with the evidence. Not financial advice.
- PPI is an index, not a delivered price. Ask for local quotes before acting.
- **Sources:** cite every figure to the capability and record it came from. Say what could not be found rather than guessing.

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