Farm operating loan stress test

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Each tool's price and track record across every agent today. Empty means the call worked and found nothing.

# Farm operating loan stress test

For one borrower, their main crops and field locations. CME product ids and field polygons carry into later steps.

## 1. Price outlook

1. Find each crop's futures with @[CME Group · Product search](alexandria:cmegroup-com/fomc-rate-probabilities/product_search) and read @[CME Group · Futures settlements](alexandria:cmegroup-com/fomc-rate-probabilities/futures_settlements) for harvest months this year and next.

## 2. Interest cost

2. Read the bank prime rate with @[FRED · Series observations](alexandria:fred-stlouisfed-org/economic-data/series_observations) (series DPRIME) for the last two years to show how the line's cost moved.

## 3. Growing conditions

3. Read @[ACIS · Monthly climate history](alexandria:rcc-acis-org/weather-history/monthly_climate_history) for the farm since planting and compare with the same months in earlier years.
4. Read @[Earth Search · Vegetation indices](alexandria:earth-search-aws-element84-com/satellite-imagery/vegetation_indices) for two or three key fields for the latest clear scenes. Compare with the same weeks last year.

## Write the stress test

- **Base case:** harvest-month futures and current conditions.
- **Stress cases:** price down and yield down scenarios using the borrower's own acres and yields.
- **Conditions:** rainfall versus earlier years and NDVI versus last year.
- **Rate exposure:** prime rate path.
- **Covenants to watch:** what to request before renewal.
- **Sources:** cite every figure to the capability and record it came from. Say what could not be found rather than guessing.

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