Grain sale timing check

Tools it calls

Each tool's price and track record across every agent today. Empty means the call worked and found nothing.

# Grain sale timing check

For one crop and the quantity and storage cost you were given. Contract months found in step 1 frame the carry.

## 1. What the market pays

1. Find the futures product with @[CME Group · Product search](alexandria:cmegroup-com/fomc-rate-probabilities/product_search) (for example `Corn`), then read the strip with @[CME Group · Futures settlements](alexandria:cmegroup-com/fomc-rate-probabilities/futures_settlements). The spread from nearby to deferred months is what storage earns; compare it with your storage cost.

## 2. Who is leaning which way

2. Find the contract with @[CFTC COT · Markets](alexandria:cftc-gov/commitments-of-traders/markets) (report disaggregated_futures_only), then read the last eight weeks with @[CFTC COT · Disaggregated futures only](alexandria:cftc-gov/commitments-of-traders/disaggregated_futures_only). Record managed-money net position and producer/merchant hedging. A crowded fund position can unwind quickly.

## 3. How the crop looks

3. Pick two or three points in the main producing area (for corn, central Iowa and Illinois) and read this season's months with @[NASA POWER · Monthly history](alexandria:power-larc-nasa-gov/weather-history/monthly_history) against @[NASA POWER · Climate normals](alexandria:power-larc-nasa-gov/weather-history/climate_normals). Hot and dry in the critical month supports price; benign weather does not.

## 4. Export demand backdrop

4. Read the broad trade-weighted dollar with @[FRED · Series observations](alexandria:fred/series/observations) (series DTWEXBGS, last six months). A rising dollar weighs on export demand.

## Write the check

- **Carry:** spread to deferred months versus your storage cost.
- **Positioning:** fund net and its direction.
- **Crop weather:** anomaly versus normal for the key month.
- **Dollar:** direction.
- **Lean:** sell, store or split, with the two strongest reasons. Not financial advice.
- **Sources:** cite every figure to the capability and record it came from. Say what could not be found rather than guessing.

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