A tool by Firecrawl · uses 6 tools · Finance

Crowded commodity positioning check

Use before a commodity trader or hedge fund analyst adds to a futures position and wants to know whether speculators are already crowded on the same side. Reads managed money positioning from the CFTC disaggregated report, the price curve and volume at CME, and the next scheduled data releases, producing a crowding score and squeeze risk note.

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Tools it calls

Each tool's price and track record across every agent today. Empty means the call worked and found nothing.

ToolPriceMedianSuccessEmpty

CFTC Commitments of TradersMarketsPrice5 creditsMedian–Success–Empty–
CFTC Commitments of TradersDisaggregated futures onlyPrice5 creditsMedian–Success–Empty–
CME Group FedWatch and market dataProduct searchPrice5 creditsMedian1.1 sSuccess100%Empty0%
CME Group FedWatch and market dataFutures settlementsPrice5 creditsMedian833 msSuccess100%Empty30.3%
CME Group FedWatch and market dataFutures volumePrice5 creditsMedian393 msSuccess100%Empty10.5%
Forex Factory economic calendarList eventsPrice5 creditsMedian205 msSuccess99.6%Empty0%

Instructions

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# Crowded commodity positioning check

For one commodity contract (for example WTI crude, natural gas, copper or corn) and the intended direction. A trade everyone already holds can unwind fast on a data surprise.

## 1. Find the market

1. Find the contract code with @[CFTC COT · Markets](alexandria:cftc-gov/commitments-of-traders/markets) (report the disaggregated futures-only dataset, query the commodity). Carry contract_market_code and exchange_code.

## 2. Positioning

2. Pull three years of weekly rows with @[CFTC COT · Disaggregated futures only](alexandria:cftc-gov/commitments-of-traders/disaggregated_futures_only) (contract_market_code, from, sort recent_first, fields open_interest_all and the m_money long, short and spread columns). Compute managed money net as a share of open interest and its percentile over the window.
3. Note the week-on-week change in the latest two reports; a large add at an extreme percentile is the crowding signal.

## 3. Price and liquidity

4. Find the CME product id with @[CME Group · Product search](alexandria:cmegroup-com/fomc-rate-probabilities/product_search) (query the commodity name or code) and read the latest settlements across the curve with @[CME Group · Futures settlements](alexandria:cmegroup-com/fomc-rate-probabilities/futures_settlements) (product_id). Backwardation or contango tells you who pays to hold the position.
5. Read daily volume and open interest with @[CME Group · Futures volume](alexandria:cmegroup-com/fomc-rate-probabilities/futures_volume) (product_id) to judge how quickly the crowd could exit.

## 4. Catalysts

6. List high-impact releases for the next two weeks with @[Forex Factory · List events](alexandria:forexfactory-com/economic-calendar/list_events) (start, end, impacts high, currencies USD) and keep the ones that move this commodity (inventories, CPI, payrolls, central bank decisions).

## Write the crowding note

- **Positioning:** managed money net, percentile, latest change, with report dates.
- **Curve and liquidity:** spread between front and next contracts, recent volume.
- **Crowding score:** low, medium or high, with the rule used.
- **Squeeze risk:** the scheduled events that could force an unwind, with dates.
- **Sources:** cite every figure to the CFTC report date or CME trade date. Say what could not be found, such as products CME does not list here.

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