A tool by Firecrawl · uses 7 tools · Finance

Economic release revision check

Use when a macro portfolio manager or economist reacts to a headline data release and needs to know how much of the move is revisions and how often first prints get revised. Reads the release vintages from FRED, compares first prints with today's values, checks the consensus surprise and the reaction in rate expectations, producing a revision-adjusted read.

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Tools it calls

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fredseries/searchPrice–Median–Success–Empty–
fredseries/releasePrice–Median–Success–Empty–
fredseries/vintage-datesPrice–Median–Success–Empty–
fredseries/observationsPrice–Median–Success–Empty–
Forex Factory economic calendarList eventsPrice5 creditsMedian205 msSuccess99.6%Empty0%
Forex Factory economic calendarEvent detailPrice5 creditsMedian–Success–Empty–
CME Group FedWatch and market dataFedwatch probability historyPrice5 creditsMedian833 msSuccess100%Empty10%

Instructions

What your agent follows when it runs this tool. Paste them into any assistant connected to Firecrawl.

# Economic release revision check

For one release (for example nonfarm payrolls, retail sales, GDP) on its release day. First prints are noisy; revisions to prior months can matter more than the headline.

## 1. Vintages

1. Find the FRED series with @[FRED · Series search](alexandria:fred/series/search) (search_text the indicator) and confirm its release with @[FRED · Series release](alexandria:fred/series/release) (series_id).
2. List when it was revised with @[FRED · Series vintage dates](alexandria:fred/series/vintage-dates) (series_id, sort_order desc, limit 24).
3. Read the data as first reported and as revised with @[FRED · Series observations](alexandria:fred/series/observations) (series_id, output_type 4 for initial release only; then the default for current values; units chg where changes are reported). Compute the average absolute revision from first print to current over the last two years.

## 2. Surprise

4. Find the release in @[Forex Factory · List events](alexandria:forexfactory-com/economic-calendar/list_events) (date the release day, currencies USD) and read the actual, forecast and previous with @[Forex Factory · Event detail](alexandria:forexfactory-com/economic-calendar/event_detail) (event_id). Previous is often revised; compare it with the earlier first print.

## 3. Reaction

5. Read FOMC probabilities before and after with @[CME Group · Fedwatch probability history](alexandria:cmegroup-com/fomc-rate-probabilities/fedwatch_probability_history) (meeting_date of the next meeting, from the day before).

## Write the read

- **Headline:** actual, consensus, surprise.
- **Revisions:** net change to prior months in this release, and the historical revision size versus the surprise.
- **Signal strength:** whether the surprise exceeds normal revision noise.
- **Market reaction:** change in the probability of the next move.
- **Sources:** cite each value to the FRED vintage date or calendar event. Say if the consensus was missing.

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