A tool by Firecrawl · uses 6 tools · Finance

Emerging market sovereign stress snapshot

Use when an emerging markets sovereign credit analyst or EM debt portfolio manager needs a fast read on whether a country is heading toward a funding crisis. Combines IMF forecasts for growth, debt and current account, World Bank reserve and external debt data, the currency's recent path and election or policy odds, producing a stress score with drivers.

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Tools it calls

Each tool's price and track record across every agent today. Empty means the call worked and found nothing.

ToolPriceMedianSuccessEmpty

IMF DataWeoPrice5 creditsMedian1.4 sSuccess92.9%Empty17.9%
World Bank DataDataPrice5 creditsMedian291 msSuccess90.1%Empty7.7%
World Bank DataIndicatorsPrice5 creditsMedian168 msSuccess52.4%Empty63.6%
XE currency dataRate historyPrice5 creditsMedian277 msSuccess100%Empty0%
Forex Factory economic calendarList eventsPrice5 creditsMedian205 msSuccess99.6%Empty0%
PolymarketQueryPrice0 creditsMedian374 msSuccess100%Empty0%

Instructions

What your agent follows when it runs this tool. Paste them into any assistant connected to Firecrawl.

# Emerging market sovereign stress snapshot

For one country (ISO3 code and currency). Crises usually combine a currency slide, thin reserves, rising debt and a political trigger.

## 1. Forecasts

1. Read the latest World Economic Outlook with @[IMF · Weo](alexandria:data-imf-org/datasets/weo) (edition latest, country_codes, subject_codes NGDP_RPCH, PCPIPCH, GGXWDG_NGDP, BCA_NGDPD, GGXCNL_NGDP, year_from three years back). Carry growth, inflation, debt to GDP, current account and fiscal balance, actuals and forecasts.

## 2. Buffers

2. Read reserves in months of imports and short-term external debt with @[World Bank · Data](alexandria:data-worldbank-org/indicators/data) (country_codes, indicator_ids FI.RES.TOTL.MO and DT.DOD.DSTC.IR.ZS, mrv 5). Look up exact indicator ids with @[World Bank · Indicators](alexandria:data-worldbank-org/indicators/indicators) if a code is not found.

## 3. Market signal

3. Read two years of the currency against the dollar with @[XE · Rate history](alexandria:xe-com/exchange-rates/rate_history) (from USD, to the currency, range 2Y). Compute the 12-month change and the largest one-month move.
4. List upcoming central bank and inflation releases for the currency with @[Forex Factory · List events](alexandria:forexfactory-com/economic-calendar/list_events) if it is one of the nine currencies covered; otherwise note that none are listed.

## 4. Political trigger

5. Search prediction markets on the country's elections or leadership with @[Polymarket · Query](alexandria:polymarket/search/query) (q the country name, limit_per_type 10).

## Write the snapshot

- **Fundamentals table:** growth, inflation, debt, current account and fiscal balance, last actual and next two forecasts.
- **Buffers:** reserve months and short-term debt share against common thresholds (three months of imports is a typical floor).
- **Currency:** 12-month change, worst month.
- **Triggers:** dated elections and market odds.
- **Stress score:** low, medium or high, with the rule used.
- **Sources:** cite each figure to its edition or indicator and year. Say which data were missing.

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