Mosquito-borne disease season outlook

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# Mosquito-borne disease season outlook

For one jurisdiction and one or two diseases (dengue, West Nile, chikungunya). Weather primes vectors; searches and case reports show whether people are getting sick.

## 1. Conditions for vectors

1. Pull the last 90 days of temperature and precipitation with @[NASA POWER · Daily weather](alexandria:power-larc-nasa-gov/weather-history/daily_weather) (geometry = jurisdiction centroid).
2. Compare with @[NASA POWER · Climate normals](alexandria:power-larc-nasa-gov/weather-history/climate_normals) for the same months. Warm and wet anomalies support earlier and larger mosquito populations.
3. Where a station record is preferred, check observed rain with @[ACIS · Daily weather history](alexandria:rcc-acis-org/weather-history/daily_weather_history).

## 2. Early public signal

4. Read @[Trends · Interest over time](alexandria:firecrawl-trends/trends/interest_over_time) (keywords such as dengue symptoms, West Nile, mosquito bites; geo = state) and @[Trends · Interest by region](alexandria:firecrawl-trends/trends/interest_by_region) to see which metros are rising. Search interest is a prompt to look, not a case count.

## 3. Imported risk and literature

5. Pull dengue indicators for the main travel source countries with @[WHO GHO · Data](alexandria:who-int/indicators/data) (indicator code found with @[WHO GHO · Indicators](alexandria:who-int/indicators/indicators)).
6. Search @[PubMed · Search](alexandria:pubmed-ncbi-nlm-nih-gov/publications/search) for recent local transmission or vector competence studies in the region.

## Write the outlook

- **Conditions:** temperature and rain anomalies versus normal, with dates.
- **Signals:** search trend changes by metro, imported-risk countries.
- **Plan:** trap placement priorities, clinician alert timing, public messaging dates.
- **Confidence:** low, medium or high, and why.
- **Sources:** coordinates and date ranges, trend queries, WHO codes, PMIDs. Say what could not be found and that surveillance case data is not in these sources.

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