A tool by Firecrawl · uses 7 tools · Finance

FOMC odds cross-check

Use in the days before a Federal Reserve meeting, when someone asks what the market expects. Compares futures-implied FedWatch probabilities with prediction market prices and with what Fed officials have said since the last meeting, against the latest inflation and jobs data, producing a preview that names where the three disagree.

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Tools it calls

Each tool's price and track record across every agent today. Empty means the call worked and found nothing.

ToolPriceMedianSuccessEmpty

CME Group FedWatch and market dataFedwatch meetingsPrice5 creditsMedian617 msSuccess98.6%Empty0%
CME Group FedWatch and market dataFedwatch probability historyPrice5 creditsMedian833 msSuccess100%Empty10%
PolymarketQueryPrice0 creditsMedian374 msSuccess100%Empty0%
PolymarketMarkets getPrice0 creditsMedian–Success–Empty–
Federal Reserve BoardSpeechesPrice5 creditsMedian–Success–Empty–
Federal Reserve BoardSpeechPrice5 creditsMedian–Success–Empty–
fredseries/observationsPrice–Median–Success–Empty–

Instructions

What your agent follows when it runs this tool. Paste them into any assistant connected to Firecrawl.

# FOMC odds cross-check

For the next scheduled FOMC meeting. The meeting date from step 1 sets the window for every later step.

## 1. What futures price

1. Get the next meeting date and current probabilities with @[CME FedWatch · FedWatch meetings](alexandria:cmegroup-com/fomc-rate-probabilities/fedwatch_meetings).
2. Read how those odds moved since the last meeting with @[CME FedWatch · FedWatch probability history](alexandria:cmegroup-com/fomc-rate-probabilities/fedwatch_probability_history) (meeting_date from step 1).

## 2. What the crowd prices

3. Find the matching decision market with @[Polymarket · Query](alexandria:polymarket/search/query) (query Fed decision plus the meeting month).
4. Read each outcome's price and volume with @[Polymarket · Markets get](alexandria:polymarket/markets/get). Convert prices to probabilities and line them up with FedWatch.

## 3. What the Fed has said

5. List speeches since the last meeting with @[Federal Reserve · Speeches](alexandria:federalreserve-gov/central-bank-communications/speeches) (from the last meeting date).
6. Read the three most recent from voting members with @[Federal Reserve · Speech](alexandria:federalreserve-gov/central-bank-communications/speech); note each one's lean on the next move, quoting one sentence.

## 4. The data they are watching

7. Read the latest CPIAUCSL (units pc1) and UNRATE with @[FRED · Series observations](alexandria:fred/series/observations).

## Write the preview

- **Odds table:** cut, hold and hike from FedWatch and Polymarket, with the gap.
- **Fed-speak:** one line per official, tagged hawkish, neutral or dovish.
- **Where they disagree:** the mispricing, if any, and the data point that would settle it.
- **Sources:** cite every figure to the capability and record it came from. Say what could not be found rather than guessing.

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