A tool by Firecrawl · uses 6 tools · Finance

Treasury auction preview

Use before a US Treasury coupon auction, when a rates strategist or dealer desk analyst writes the preview. Reads the upcoming auction size, the last several results for the same tenor, bidder mix, the current yield level and rate expectations, producing a preview with the tail risk and what would count as a strong or weak auction.

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treasury-fiscal-dataauctions/upcomingPrice–Median–Success–Empty–
treasury-fiscal-dataauctions/resultsPrice–Median–Success–Empty–
fredseries/observationsPrice–Median–Success–Empty–
CME Group FedWatch and market dataFedwatch meetingsPrice5 creditsMedian617 msSuccess98.6%Empty0%
Federal Reserve BoardSpeechesPrice5 creditsMedian–Success–Empty–
treasury-fiscal-datadaily-statement/operating-cash-balancePrice–Median–Success–Empty–

Instructions

What your agent follows when it runs this tool. Paste them into any assistant connected to Firecrawl.

# Treasury auction preview

For one tenor (for example 10-year note or 30-year bond). The preview compares the coming auction with its own history and the macro backdrop.

## 1. The auction

1. Read the calendar with @[Treasury Fiscal Data · Upcoming auctions](alexandria:treasury-fiscal-data/auctions/upcoming) (filter security_term for the tenor). Carry auction date, offering amount and CUSIP.

## 2. Its history

2. Pull the last eight results for the tenor with @[Treasury Fiscal Data · Auction results](alexandria:treasury-fiscal-data/auctions/results) (filter security_type and security_term, sort -auction_date, fields auction_date, high_yield, bid_to_cover_ratio, offering_amt, primary_dealer_accepted, indirect_bidder_accepted, direct_bidder_accepted). Compute dealer, indirect and direct shares of the amount accepted, since bidder takedown arrives as amounts.
3. Read the matching constant-maturity yield on each auction date with @[FRED · Series observations](alexandria:fred/series/observations) (series_id such as DGS10, observation_start). The gap between high yield and that day's market yield approximates the tail when no when-issued level is available.

## 3. Backdrop

4. Read the latest FOMC-meeting probabilities with @[CME Group · Fedwatch meetings](alexandria:cmegroup-com/fomc-rate-probabilities/fedwatch_meetings) to see whether cuts are priced before the auction settles.
5. List Fed speeches between now and the auction with @[Federal Reserve · Speeches](alexandria:federalreserve-gov/central-bank-communications/speeches) (from today, to auction date) for scheduled risk.
6. Check the Treasury's cash position with @[Treasury Fiscal Data · Operating cash balance](alexandria:treasury-fiscal-data/daily-statement/operating-cash-balance) (sort -record_date, page[size] 10) for whether issuance pressure is rising.

## Write the preview

- **Size and timing:** amount, date, change versus the last auction of the tenor.
- **History table:** date, high yield, bid-to-cover, dealer, indirect and direct shares, approximate tail.
- **Benchmarks:** averages over the eight auctions; a strong result beats them on bid-to-cover and dealer share.
- **Backdrop:** rate expectations and scheduled speakers.
- **Sources:** cite every number to its record date. Say what could not be computed, such as a true tail without a when-issued yield.

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